Democrats Are in Danger
The 2020 Electoral Map
Democrats are in trouble. There is a presidential election next year and the Democratic Party is sorting through a large group of potential candidates trying to determine which is the most electable. Electability simply means “this person has the best chance to win an election.” It doesn’t mean the person is the best choice or that the person has the best policy ideas, it just means the person can win an election.
Currently there seems to be two schools of thought amongst Democratic Party leaders. One faction is under an old school umbrella, thinking the way to election night victory is through Rust Belt states, specifically Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These four states used to be solidly blue, but in the 2016 election, each of these states flipped in favor of Donald Trump. Old school Democrats think that a moderate candidate with broad appeal and high name recognition, such as Joe Biden, could flip these states back to the Democrats and steal the election from Trump.
The other school of thought is found in the more progressive, newer Democrats. They believe that the best chance they have of beating Trump is by fighting fire with fire. By nominating an incredibly liberal, incredibly progressive candidate, Democrats will be able to rally their base and force high election turnout. High election turnout has historically favored the Democratic Party. This group believes that a popular, liberal candidate, such as Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, would be able to rally enough of the population to overcome deficits in states such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and even Texas.
While it seems that the progressive, new age Democrats are eventually going to influence change in the party, the 2020 election is looking bleak for the Democratic Party. President Trump is unpopular, marred by scandal, constantly in the news cycle in negative light, yet remains constantly around 35% popularity nationwide. This rating goes up in important Rust Belt states, where his average is around 45%, and Sun Belt states, where he is above 50%. So what does this mean?
Simply put, it means that Democrats are going to have difficult electoral fights in states they desperately need, and the map might not be in their favor. In recent years, political analysts have noticed a voting shift among states, with the Rust Belt slowly turning solidly red while the Sun Belt shifts blue. While this trend will eventually even out, currently it has just allowed for the electoral map to favor the Republicans. Trump’s wildcard brand of politics has captured the imagination of Rust Belt states. He has a moderate to solid chance of winning the Electoral College votes in four of the seven states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa), with a fighting chance in Michigan. If Trump preforms well in these states, it shifts to the Sun Belt, a region that Democrats have long sought after but continually failed to capture. Unless there are drastic voting changes in the next election as compared to 2018, it doesn’t seem likely that Texas, North Carolina, or Arizona will shift Blue, even though it is likely these races will be closer than they were in 2016.
So, in conclusion, Democrats have a tough decision to make leading up to the 2020 election, and it might not matter either way. If they aim to retake the Rust Belt for one final stand, they risk isolating the more progressive group of voters found in the Sun Belt. If they try to flip the long held Republican Sun Belt, they will surely lose out in the Rust Belt. There is a moderate chance that the Democratic Party could capture more of the popular vote and still lose the 2020 Presidential Election simply because the map doesn’t favor them.
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Matthew Williams
Sports, Movies, Game of Thrones, and Politics. A well balanced media diet
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